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Ouch. From one perspective, the nation's protracted campaign to organize the Cop31 next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the survival crisis facing island countries in the Pacific, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. In recent days, there have been doubts that the prime minister and other senior figures truly desired the bid to succeed. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the Australian and international media saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the Australian climate change minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the government have only occasionally appeared to care.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, traditionally responsible for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and sometimes completely against.

Evidence suggests Albanese has viewed international climate meetings a important focus. He hasn't attended one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. But there is another way to consider it.

In the context the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

Bowen set out on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. The Turkish government would be the Cop president, organizer and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the discussions on how to collectively address the climate crisis.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. Specific aspects of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what appeared to be an impending disaster for the international cooperation on global warming.

The Turkish government is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. The system is designed to operate by consensus. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with weaker backing either bow out voluntarily, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. At least 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Ankara declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the fracturing geopolitical climate. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turks with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with the Russian leader. Some countries worried about a conference obstructed from the leadership if his government managed the negotiations. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

A Creative Solution

A resolution was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often unsettling to observe, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see the minister as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This matters. While certain critics have downplayed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, build consensus and achieve an ambitious outcome. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the conference other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, non-governmental organizations is essential at climate conferences. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. This attempt is justified.