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Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The move to assault another independent nation and seize its president – mere days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would comply with American demands, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the interim president, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “unconcerned about deploying troops”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a international peacekeeper; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power permits it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: consider the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came absent any United Nations mandate or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to destroy them.

Disregard the implication this carries to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, no US personnel died. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage further adventurism.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

Few believe the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for narcotics and arms offenses. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the allure of petroleum resources as well as personal bravado, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the appetite for triumphalism as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been shockingly muted. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could still pressure him to redirect his gaze inward – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. Other governments may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.